Will a major recession hit before 2028?

Baseline forecasts still point to slower but positive U.S. growth, making a major recession by 2028 less likely than not.

The most likely scenario across 2.5 years is continued slow growth rather than a synchronized collapse in jobs and output, with the Fed holding rate-cut capacity in reserve to cushion any downturn.

Strong consumer demand, stable labor markets, and adaptive monetary policy are expected to sustain economic expansion and prevent a major recession through 2028.