Will there be a US recession in 2026?

Growth and labor data still point to slowdown, not a broad 2026 contraction.

Resilient consumer spending, a cooling-but-solid labor market, and Fed rate cuts make a soft landing far likelier than an outright 2026 downturn.

The U.S. economy continues to show resilience with steady job growth and consumer spending, keeping recession risks low for the remainder of 2026.

Mid-2026 growth and jobs data still look expansionary, not contractionary.